coal production (current forecast) (million short tons) electric power sector generation from coal (current forecast) (billion kilowatthours) renewable diesel production (current forecast) (million barrels per day) LNG exports (current forecast) (billion cubic feet per day) U.S natural gas consumption in the electric power sector (current forecast) (billion cubic feet per day) The previous STEO forecast was released June 6. 19, 2021 Oil prices are at seven-year highs, with the cost of West Texas Intermediate crude, the United States benchmark, up 70 percent this year, at more than 80 per barrel. The current STEO forecast was released July 11. This month’s Between the Lines article discusses our U.S. We periodically publish report and article supplements to the STEO to provide an in-depth analysis of special topics related to our forecasts. coal-fired generation during 2H23 will be 75 billion kilowatthours (18%) less than 2H22. The increase in solar capacity, along with lower natural gas prices, reduces our forecast of coal-fired electricity generation this year. solar generation this summer (June, July, and August) than last summer. Solar has been the leading source of new generating capacity in the United States so far this year, and the new capacity contributes to our forecast of 23% more U.S. Henry Hub prices in our forecast average more than $2.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the second half of 2023 (2H23), up from about $2.40/MMBtu in the first half of the year. We expect the Henry Hub spot price will rise in the coming months as declining natural gas production narrows the existing surplus of natural gas inventories compared with the five-year average. However, we still expect renewable diesel production will grow in the United States to reach 219,000 b/d in 2024. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) revised Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) rule establishing biofuel volume requirements that was issued on June 21, we have reduced our forecast for renewable diesel production growth. Crude oil prices gradually increase throughout our forecast, reaching about $80/b in 4Q23 and averaging about $84/b in 2024 because we expect that global oil inventories will decline over the next five quarters. We forecast that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $78 per barrel (b) in July. We use the S&P Global macroeconomic model, and we input our energy price forecasts to get the forecasts for the U.S. The upward revision is partially driven by an updated estimate of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 (1Q23) resulting from more consumer spending and aggregate investment than assumed in last month’s STEO.
GDP growth of 1.5% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024, which is revised up from last month’s forecast of 1.3% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024.
read moreĪnalysts at Goldman Sachs said a return of Iranian crude supply would reduce their 2023 forecast by $5-10 per barrel from $125 per barrel. The European Union and United States said on Tuesday they were studying Iran's response to what the EU has called its "final" proposal to save the deal. On the oil supply front, the market is awaiting developments from talks to revive Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, which could eventually lead to a boost in Iranian oil exports. "There are growing downside risks as a result of the growth outlook and ongoing uncertainty around Chinese COVID restrictions," said Craig Erlam of brokerage OANDA.Īn exodus of participants, especially hedge funds and speculators, has made daily price swings far greater than in previous years. British consumer price inflation jumped to 10.1% in July, its highest since February 1982, intensifying a squeeze on households, and pushing oil prices lower earlier in the day. The prospect of recession has also more recently weighed on oil prices.
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